Prediction result: corporate Linux

Ten years ago I predicted that 30% of corporate desktops would be Linux or similar open source desktops.

It’s very hard to find any accurate (or even confident) numbers, but it seems clear I was wrong.

This month, NetMarketShare puts Linux usage at 1.28%, and w3schools puts Linux usage at 5.2%.

I think companies almost certainly use Linux more than home consumers. Certainly, my own company has a very large section of its population using Linux – all users who have access to sensitive information are required to use it to increase security.

But, I would be very surprised if levels were at 30%.

Linux desktop usage does continue to creep upwards though, while everyone is distracted looking at phones and tablets. At some time there may be a tipping point.