Survival rate of WG21 meeting attendance

WG21, the C++ Standards committee, has a very active membership, with lots of people attending the regular meetings; there are three or four meetings a year, with an average meeting attendance of 67 (between 2004 and 2016).

The minutes of WG21 meetings list those who attend, and a while ago I downloaded these for meetings between 2004 and 2016. Last night I scraped the data and cleaned it up (or at least the attendee names).

WG21 had its first meeting in 1992, and continues to have meetings (eleven physical meetings at the time or writing). This means the data is both left and right censored; known as interval censored. Some people will have attended many meetings before the scraped data starts, and some people listed in the data may not have attended another meeting since.

What can we say about the survival rate of a person being a WG21 attendee in the future, e.g., what is the probability they will attend another meeting?

Most regular attendees are likely to miss a meeting every now and again (six people attended all 30 meetings in the dataset, with 22 attending more than 25), and I assumed that anybody who attended a meeting after 1 January 2015 was still attending. Various techniques are available to estimate the likelihood that known attendees were attending meetings prior to those in the dataset (I’m going with what ever R’s survival package does). The default behavior of R’s Surv function is to handle right censoring, the common case. Extra arguments are needed to handle interval censored data, and I think I got these right (I had to cast a logical argument to numeric for some reason; see code+data).

The survival curves in days since 1 Jan 2004, and meetings based on the first meeting in 2004, with 95% confidence bounds, look like this:


Meeting survival curve of WG21 attendees.

I was expecting a sharper initial reduction, and perhaps wider confidence bounds. Of the 374 people listed as attending a meeting, 177 (47%) only appear once and 36 (10%) appear twice; there is a long tail, with 1.6% appearing at every meeting. But what do I know, my experience of interval censored data is rather limited.

The half-life of attendance is 9 to 10 years, suspiciously close to the interval of the data. Perhaps a reader will scrape the minutes from earlier meetings :-)

Within the time interval of the data, new revisions of the C++ standard occurred in 2007 and 2014; there had also been a new release in 2003, and one was being worked on for 2017. I know some people stop attending meetings after a major milestone, such as a new standard being published. A fancier analysis would investigate the impact of standards being published on meeting attendance.

People also change jobs. Do WG21 attendees change jobs to ones that also require/allow them to attend WG21 meetings? The attendee’s company is often listed in the minutes (and is in the data). Something for intrepid readers to investigate.

The C++ committee has taken off its ball and chain

A step change in the approach to updates and additions to the C++ Standard occurred at the recent WG21 meeting, or rather a change that has been kind of going on for a few meetings has been documented and discussed. Two bullet points at the start of “C++ Stability, Velocity, and Deployment Plans [R2]”, grab reader’s attention:

● Is C++ a language of exciting new features?
● Is C++ a language known for great stability over a long period?

followed by the proposal (which was agreed at the meeting): “The Committee should be willing to consider the design / quality of proposals even if they may cause a change in behavior or failure to compile for existing code.”

We have had 30 years of C++/C compatibility (ok, there have been some nibbling around the edges over the last 15 years). A remarkable achievement, thanks to Bjarne Stroustrup over 30+ years and 64 full-week standards’ meetings (also, Tom Plum and Bill Plauger were engaged in shuttle diplomacy between WG14 and WG21).

The C/C++ superset/different issue has a long history.

In the late 1980s SC22 (the top-level ISO committee for programming languages) asked WG14 (the C committee) whether a standard should be created for C++, and if so did WG14 want to create it. WG14 considered the matter at its April 1989 meeting, and replied that in its view a standard for C++ was worth considering, but that the C committee were not the people to do it.

In 1990, SC22 started a study group to look into whether a working group for C++ should be created and in the U.S. X3 (the ANSI committee responsible for Information processing systems) set up X3J16. The showdown meeting of what would become WG21, was held in London, March 1992 (the only ISO C++ meeting I have attended).

The X3J16 people were in London for the ISO meeting, which was heated at times. The two public positions were: 1) work should start on a standard for C++, 2) C++ was not yet mature enough for work to start on a standard.

The, not so public, reason given for wanting to start work on a standard was to stop, or at least slow down, changes to the language. New releases, rumored and/or actual, of Cfront were frequent (in a pre-Internet time sense). Writing large applications in a version of C++ that was replaced with something sightly different six months later was has developers in large companies pulling their hair out.

You might have thought that compiler vendors would be happy for the language to be changing on a regular basis; changes provide an incentive for users to pay for compiler upgrades. In practice the changes were so significant that major rework was needed by somebody who knew what they were doing, i.e., expensive people had to be paid; vendors were more used to putting effort into marketing minor updates. It was claimed that implementing a C++ compiler required seven times the effort of implementing a C compiler. I have no idea how true this claim might have been (it might have been one vendor’s approximate experience). In the 1980s everybody and his dog had their own C compiler and most of those who had tried, had run into a brick wall trying to implement a C++ compiler.

The stop/slow down changing C++ vs. let C++ “fulfill its destiny” (a rallying call from the AT&T rep, which the whole room cheered) finally got voted on; the study group became a WG (I cannot tell you the numbers; the meeting minutes are not online and I cannot find a paper copy {we had those until the mid/late-90s}).

The creation of WG21 did not have the intended effect (slowing down changes to the language); Stroustrup joined the committee and C++ evolution continued apace. However, from the developers’ perspective language change did slow down; Cfront changes stopped because its code was collapsing under its own evolutionary weight and usable C++ compilers became available from other vendors (in the early days, Zortech C++ was a major boost to the spread of usage).

The last WG21 meeting had 140 people on the attendance list; they were not all bored consultants looking for a creative outlet (i.e., exciting new features), but I’m sure many would be happy to drop the ball-and-chain (otherwise known as C compatibility).

I think there will be lots of proposals that will break C compatibility in one way or another and some will it into a published standard. The claim will be that the changes will make life easier for future C++ developers (a claim made by proponents of every language, for which there is zero empirical evidence). The only way of finding out whether a change has long term benefit is to wait a long time and see what happens.

The interesting question is how C++ compiler vendors will react to breaking changes in the language standard. There are not many production compilers out there these days, i.e., not a lot of competition. What incentive does a compiler vendor have to release a version of their compiler that will likely break existing code? Compiler validation, against a standard, is now history.

If WG21 make too many breaking changes, they could find C++ vendors ignoring them and developers asking whether the ISO C++ standards’ committee is past its sell by date.