Learning useful stuff from the Reliability chapter of my book

What useful, practical things might professional software developers learn from my evidence-based software engineering book?

Once the book is officially released I need to have good answers to this question (saying: “Well, I decided to collect all the publicly available software engineering data and say something about it”, is not going to motivate people to read the book).

This week I checked the reliability chapter; what useful things did I learn (combined with everything I learned during all the other weeks spent working on this chapter)?

A casual reader skimming the chapter would conclude that little was known about software reliability, and they would be right (I already knew this, but I learned that we know even less than I thought was known), and many researchers continue to dig in unproductive holes.

A reader with some familiarity with reliability research would be surprised to see that some ‘major’ topics are not discussed.

The train wreck that is machine learning has been avoided (not forgetting that the data used is mostly worthless), mutation testing gets mentioned because of some interesting data (the underlying problem is that mutation testing assumes that coding mistakes are local to one line, but in practice coding mistakes often involve multiple lines), and the theory discussions don’t mention non-homogeneous Poisson process as the basis for software fault models (because this process is not capable of solving the questions asked).

What did I learn? My highlights include:

  • Anne Choa‘s work on population estimation. The takeaway from this work is that if people want to estimate the number of remaining fault experiences, based on previous experienced faults, then every occurrence (i.e., not just the first) of a fault needs to be counted,
  • Janet Dunham’s top read work on software testing,
  • the variability in the numeric percentage that people assign to probability terms (e.g., almost all, likely, unlikely) is much wider than I would have thought,
  • the impact of the distribution of input values on fault experiences may be detectable,
  • really a lowlight, but there is a lot less publicly available data than I had expected (for the other chapters there was more data than I had expected).

The last decade has seen fuzzing grow to dominate the headlines around software reliability and testing, and provide data for people who write evidence-based books. I don’t have much of a feel for how widely used it is in industry, but it is a very useful tool for reliability researchers.

Readers might have a completely different learning experience from reading the reliability chapter. What useful things did you learn from the reliability chapter?